Celebrated expert on geopolitics and foreign policy. Famous for his startlingly accurate predictions of future political and business events.

Highlights

Since the 1970s, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been making amazingly precise and accurate forecasts of future events in politics, government, and business. Working with the State Department, CIA, and the Defense Department, he has become an invaluable factor in the formation of US foreign policy and national security issues.

He is a sought-after expert in the quest to find solutions to international conflict, foreign policy problems, and nation building.

In his corporate consulting role, he has given Fortune 500 companies a leg up by correctly forecasting the course of events in legal, regulatory, and merger and acquisitions activities they are involved in.

Bruce has been uncannily accurate in forecasting events and governmental decisions in countries and trouble spots around the world, including Iran and Pakistan:

"In 1984, [he] predicted that when Ayatollah Khomeini died, an ayatollah named Hojatolislam Khameini and a little-known cleric named Hasheimi Rafsanjani would rise to succeed Khomeini as leaders of Iran. At the time, most experts considered that outcome exceedingly unlikely, since Khomeini had designated a different person as his successor. But in fact, when Khomeini died five years later, Rafsanjani and Khameini succeeded him." — Science News

"Last year, he forecast when President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan would be forced out of office and was accurate to within a month." — New York Times

Asked by the US government to predict the possibility of a terrorist attack on US soil in the months before the 2004 presidential election, he accurately forecast that there would be none, and he was right.

Bruce predicts how the leaders involved in making decisions will act over time, based on their own self interest, their predilections, and given their relative influence on any particular issue. He uses complex computer algorithms, along with a deep understanding of the players in the geopolitical game, to predict outcomes.

Here are a few of his most recent findings:

• There will be a Middle East settlement in the next 18 months.
• US will not go to war with Iran.
• Iran won’t go all the way and actually make a nuclear bomb.

Bruce was recently profiled in a cover story in the New York Times Magazine. He is also the subject of a recent History Channel program entitled, The Next Nostradamus.

He is the author and coauthor of fifteen books and more than one hundred articles and numerous pieces in major newspapers and magazine. His books include: The Logic of Political Survival, War and Reason, Predicting Politics, The War Trap, and The Predictioneer’s Game.

In 2005, Bruce was identified in a survey conducted by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the ten most influential political scientists in the foreign policy arena.

In 1992, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

"Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts."
    — Amazon.com Review

"Bueno de Mesquita has successfully turned the art of decision-making into a science — and enriched our understanding of politics and business in the process. Dispensing with clichés about rationality and irrationality, he explains how to predict behavior based on the relevant players’ interests and contexts. Bueno de Mesquita says he does not have a crystal ball, but this book gives readers the ingredients to build their own."
    — Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: How Emerging Powers are Redefining Global
    Competition in the 21^st Century

Credentials

• Silver Professor of Politics, New York University
• Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
• Board of Advisors, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University
• Chairman, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, 1983 to 1986
• Visiting Professor, Yale University, Cornell University, University of California at Berkeley, and New York University
• Dag Hammarskjold Memorial Award
• Karl Deutsch Award in International Relations and Peace Research
• Guggenheim Fellow
• Member, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
• Member, Council on Foreign Relations
• President, International Studies Association, 2001-2002
• M.A., Ph.D., in political science, University of Michigan
• B.A. Queens College, New York, 1967